The global CO2 emissions growth after international crisis and the role of international trade

In this paper, we decompose the driving forces of global CO2 emissions for the post-crisis era 2008–2011 from both production-based and consumption-based aspects. The results suggest that non-OECD economies have become the major drivers for the rapid global growth of CO2 emissions after the crisis. More specifically, the increasing consumption and investment of non-OECD economies, as well as stagnation of their emission intensity reductions, have largely contributed to global growth of CO2 emissions after 2009. On the contrary, OECD economies have a less carbon-intensive life style. Coupled with a decrease in investment and stagnation of consumption, the OECD economies have successfully reduced both their production-based and consumption-based emissions. However, the magnitude of their reduction is much lower than the increase led by non-OECD economies. In addition, both OECD and non-OECD economies have started to increase their purchases of intermediate and final products from non-OECD economies. Such changes of international trade caused an additional 673 Mt of global emissions from 2008 to 2011. The results of our decomposition provide both worries about and insights into future global climate change mitigation

Quantity and quality of China's water from demand perspectives

China is confronted with an unprecedented water crisis regarding its quantity and quality. In this study, we quantified the dynamics of China's embodied water use and chemical oxygen demand (COD) discharge from 2010 to 2015. The analysis was conducted with the latest available water use data across sectors in primary, secondary and tertiary industries and input-output models. The results showed that (1) China's water crisis was alleviated under urbanisation. Urban consumption occupied the largest percentages (over 30%) of embodied water use and COD discharge, but embodied water intensities in urban consumption were far lower than those in rural consumption. (2) The 'new normal' phase witnessed the optimisation of China's water use structures. Embodied water use in light-manufacturing and tertiary sectors increased while those in heavy-manufacturing sectors (except chemicals and transport equipment) dropped. (3) Transformation of China's international market brought positive effects on its domestic water use. China's water use (116-80 billion tonnes (Bts))9 and COD discharge (3.95-2.22 million tonnes (Mts)) embodied in export tremendously decreased while its total export values (11-25 trillion CNY) soared. Furthermore, embodied water use and COD discharge in relatively low-end sectors, such as textile, started to transfer from international to domestic markets when a part of China's production activities had been relocated to other developing countries

The Global CO2 Emission Cost of Geographic Shifts in International Sourcing

In this paper we simulated the global direct CO2 emission cost of geographic shift of international sourcing for the period 1995–2011 by comparing the scenarios with and without geographic shift. Our simulations indicate that in 2011, had the share of trade by the sourcing economy remained at the level of 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2008 whereas the global final demand remained the same, global CO2 emissions in production processes would have been 2.8 Gt, 2.0 Gt, 1.3 Gt, and 540 Mt, respectively, lower than the actual emissions. As there is a general outsourcing trend shifted from developed economies to developing economies, the overall direct emission costs have always been significantly positive. Further investigations by economy and industry show that such a geographic shift was mainly dominated by developed economies themselves and occurred in high-tech industries, such as production of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) goods and machinery, leading to positive emission cost in developing economies, especially China. Moreover, there is potentially even larger influence of geographic shift of sourcing on global CO2 emissions, as such a shift would stimulate the economic growth and consumptions in developing economies, consequently this may bring additional energy demand and CO2 emissions. Our results addressed the urgency of eliminating in carbon emission intensity gap between developing and developed economies and the successful development of new, scalable low carbon energy sourcing and technologies across the world

China CO2 emission accounts 2016–2017

Despite China’s emissions having plateaued in 2013, it is still the world’s leading energy consumer and CO2 emitter, accounting for approximately 30% of global emissions. Detailed CO2 emission inventories by energy and sector have great significance to China’s carbon policies as well as to achieving global climate change mitigation targets. This study constructs the most up-to-date CO2 emission inventories for China and its 30 provinces, as well as their energy inventories for the years 2016 and 2017. The newly compiled inventories provide key updates and supplements to our previous emission dataset for 1997–2015. Emissions are calculated based on IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) administrative territorial scope that covers all anthropogenic emissions generated within an administrative boundary due to energy consumption (i.e. energy-related emissions from 17 fossil fuel types) and industrial production (i.e. process-related emissions from cement production). The inventories are constructed for 47 economic sectors consistent with the national economic accounting system. The data can be used as inputs to climate and integrated assessment models and for analysis of emission patterns of China and its regions

Emissions and low-carbon development in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area cities and their surroundings

Cities are the major contributors to energy consumption and CO2 emissions, as well as being leading innovators and implementers of policy measures in climate change mitigation. Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is an agglomeration of cities put forward by China to strengthen international cooperation among “Belt and Road” countries and promote low-carbon, inclusive, coordinated and sustainable development. Few studies have discussed the emission characteristics of GBA cities. This study, for the first time, compiles emission inventories of 11 GBA cities and their surroundings based on IPCC territorial emission accounting approach, which are consistent and comparable with the national and provincial inventories. Results show that (a) total emissions increased from 426 Mt in 2000 to 610 Mt in 2016, while emissions of GBA cities increased rapidly by 6.9% over 2000–2011 and peaked in 2014 (334 Mt); (b) raw coal and diesel oil are the top two emitters by energy type, while energy production sector and tertiary industry are the top two largest sectors; (c) GBA cities take the lead in low-carbon development, emitted 4% of total national emissions and contributed 13% of national GDP with less than a third of national emission intensities and less than three-quarters of national per capita emissions; (d) Macao, Shenzhen and Hong Kong have the top three lowest emission intensity in the country; (e) most of GBA cities are experiencing the shift from an industrial economy to a service economy, while Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Foshan and Huizhou reached their peak emissions and Guangzhou, Dongguan and Jiangmen remained decreasing emission tendencies; (g) for those coal-dominate or energy-production cities (i.e. Zhuhai, Zhongshan, Zhaoqing, Maoming, Yangjiang, Shanwei, Shaoguan and Zhanjiang) in mid-term industrialization, total emissions experienced soaring increases. The emission inventories provide robust, self-consistent, transparent and comparable data support for identifying spatial–temporal emission characteristics, developing low-carbon policies, monitoring mitigation progress in GBA cities as well as further emissions-related studies at a city-level. The low-carbon roadmaps designed for GBA cities and their surroundings also provide a benchmark for other developing countries/cities to adapting changing climate and achieve sustainable development

Using a Linear Regression Approach to Sequential Interindustry Model for Time-Lagged Economic Impact Analysis

The input-output (IO) model is a powerful economic tool with many extended applications. However, one of the widely criticized drawbacks is its rather lengthy time lag in data preparation, making it impossible to apply IO in high-resolution time-series analysis. The conventional IO model is thus unfortunately unsuited for time-series analysis. In this study, we present an innovative algorithm that integrates linear regression techniques into a derivative of the IO method, the Sequential Interindustry Model (SIM), to overcome the inherent shortcomings of statistical lags in conventional IO studies. The regressed relationship can thus be used to predict, in the short term, the accumulated chronological impacts induced by fluctuations in sectorial economic demands under disequilibrium conditions. A simulated calculation is presented to serve as an illustration and verification of the new method. In the future, this application can be extended beyond economic studies to broader problems of system analysis

City-level water withdrawal in China:Accounting methodology and applications

In the context of the freshwater crisis, accounting for water withdrawal could help planners better regulate water use in different sectors to combat water scarcity. However, the water withdrawal statistics in China are patchy, and the water data across all sectors at the city level appear to be relatively insufficient. Hence, we develop a general framework to, for the first time, estimate the water withdrawal of 58 economic–social–environmental sectors in cities in China. This methodology was applied because only inconsistent water statistics collected from different data sources at the city level are available. We applied it to 18 representative Chinese cities. Different from conventional perceptions that agriculture is usually the largest water user, industrial and household water withdrawal may also occupy the largest percentages in the water-use structure of some cities. The discrepancy among annual household water use per capita in the urban areas of different cities is relatively small (as is the case for rural areas), but that between urban and rural areas is large. As a result, increased attention should be paid to controlling industrial and urban household water use in particular cities. China should specifically prepare annual water accounts at the city level and establish a timetable to tackle water scarcity, which is a basic step toward efficient and sustainable water crisis mitigation

Categorising virtual water transfers through China's electric power sector

Water consumption in thermoelectric and hydropower plants in China increased from 1.6 and 6.1 billion m3, respectively, to 3.8 and 14.6 billion m3 from 2002 to 2010. Using the concept of virtual water, we attribute to different electricity users the total water consumption by the electric power sector. From 2002 to 2010, virtual water embodied in the final consumption of electricity (hereinafter referred to as VWEF) increased from 1.90 to 7.35 billion m3, whilst virtual water in electricity used by industries (hereinafter referred to as VWEI) increased from 5.82 to 11.13 billion m3. The inter-provincial virtual water trades as a result of spatial mismatch of electricity production and consumption are quantified. Nearly half (47.5% in 2010) of the physical water inputs into the power sector were virtually transferred across provincial boundaries in the form of virtual water embodied in the electricity produced, mainly from provinces in northeast, central and south China to those in east and north China. Until 2030, VWEF and VWEI are likely to increase from 5.27 and 14.89 billion m3 to 7.19 and 20.33 billion m3, respectively. Climate change mitigation and water conservation measures in the power sector may help to relieve the regional pressures on water resources imposed by the power sector

Industrial Relocation and CO2 Emission Intensity: Focus on the Potential Cross-Country Shift from China to India and SE Asia

The potential relocation of various industrial sectors from China to India and countries of the SE Asian region presents low cost opportunities for manufacturers, but also risks rising energy demand and CO2 emissions. A cross-country shift of industrial output would present challenges for controlling emissions since India and SE Asian countries present higher industrial emissions intensity than China. We find that although there is a convergence in emissions intensity in the Machinery manufacturing and Paper and Pulp industries, there are significant variations in all other industrial sectors. Indian emissions are double that of China in the Iron and Steel and Textile and Leather industries and almost triple in the cement industry; Indonesian emissions are almost double those of China in the Non-Metallic Minerals and Textile and Leather industries and 50% higher in the Chemical and Petrochemical industry. We demonstrate that the expected higher emissions are driven by both a higher fuel mix carbon intensity in the new countries and a higher energy intensity in their industrial activities. While industrial relocation could benefit certain countries financially, it would impose considerable threats to their energy supply security and capacity to comply with their Paris Agreement commitments

Energy and carbon intensity: A study on the cross-country industrial shift from China to India and SE Asia

The potential relocation of various industrial sectors from China to India and countries of the SE Asian region presents low cost opportunities for manufacturers, but also risks rising for energy demand and CO2 emissions. A cross-country shift of industrial output would present challenges for controlling emissions since India and SE Asian countries present higher industrial emissions intensity than China. We find that although there is a convergence in emissions intensity in the machinery manufacturing and paper and pulp industries, there are significant variations in all other industrial sectors. Indian emissions intensity is double that of China in the iron and steel and textile and leather industries and almost triple in the cement industry; Indonesian emissions intensity is almost double that of China in the non-metallic minerals and textile and leather industries and 50% higher in the chemical and petrochemical industry. We demonstrate that the expected higher emissions are driven by both a higher carbon fuel mix intensity in the recipient countries and higher energy intensity in their industrial activities. While industrial relocation could benefit certain countries financially, it would impose considerable threats to their energy supply security and capacity to comply with their Paris Agreement commitments